Exclusive interview to Josh Calder

(di Maria Grazia Labellarte)

Josh Calder is a professional futurist, working in the field since the 1990s and now a partner with Foresight Alliance. Helping organizations—from intelligence agencies to consumer goods companies—understand and shape their futures. He tracks social, economic, technological, and political change to reveal the future systems within which clients will operate. He has worked for business, non-profit, and government clients on a wide range of foresight topics. His background is in foreign policy, he also pays attention to images of the future in science fiction.

Mr. Calder, according to the American Constitution, chosen electors of the Electoral College are the real people who will vote for president, when they meet on Dec. 19, in their respective state capitals. Apparently, there is technically nothing stopping any of the electors from refusing to support the candidate to whom they were bound,  in  your opinion who they will vote to?

The Electoral College is highly likely to vote for Trump, despite some activists calling for them to change their votes. Only some outrage by Trump before then might change this, and they still might vote for Trump/Pence, with the assumption that Pence would take over.

By definition Populism is a political ideology holding those virtuous citizens mistreated by a small circle of elites, who can be overthrown if people recognize the danger and work together.  In your opinion could we define Donald Trump as a Populist? 

Trump has run as a populist. It is hard to say whether he is actually a populist, or will govern as one. The more he collaborates with mainstream Republicans, the less likely genuine populist policies are.

The Monroe Doctrine opposed European Colonialism and recognized and not  interfered in the internal concerns of European countries, is Donald Trump going to holding back the Monroe Doctrine’s times?

The Monroe Doctrine applied to U.S. opposition to European colonialism in the Americas, not to internal events in Europe. Trump has expressed some isolationist ideas, and skepticism of "nation-building," so he may be less interested in other countries' internal affairs. He and his administration may also bring an indifference to human rights that could decrease American attention to other countries' internal actions.

How do you picture the EU and US relationships maps in the next future?

One thing that is clear is that there is more uncertainty than there has been in decades. Neither Europe nor the US knows exactly what Trump is going to do. There could be clashes over US policies toward Russia, Iran, Israel, or climate change. Trump may also successfully divide Europe -- as the US did in 2003 over Iraq -- especially if more right-wing and populist governments come to power in Europe.

Do you think the Liberal Governments are going to suffer the consequences from these elections?

Trump's success does seem to be inspiring right-wing populism in Europe, so some mainstream European governments may suffer reverses.

Is the Trump’s arrival a NATO‘s ending?

Trump's pronouncements during the campaign aren't likely to turn to actual policy with regards to NATO, at least directly. The bigger challenge would come if there were a crisis and the Trump administration declined to honor NATO commitments, or if Trump caused a crisis and the rest of NATO objected to Trump's policy. Polls already show the European publics have very little confidence in Trump.

 (foto: Foresight Alliance)